How the media affects the economy.............

I see it every day so called economic experts on the T.V. Radio, Internet and Newspaper talking and predicting how the economy is either going upward or downward. Being just a normal guy who works everyday, plays on the weekend and starts over on Monday I wonder if these so called experts in the field of economics really know what they are talking about. I am a pretty positive person I try to look at the glass half full but understand the reality of things but listening to someone on CNN that claims to be a expert who most Americans have never heard of or really even care who they are.Are we headed in the right direction who knows unemployment is dropping as we speak, the housing market is stabilizing yet we are not out of the woods in the overall out look. I saw a lady on Yahoo this morning saying how 48% of Americans are underwater on their mortgages, well I don't know about you but the day I closed on my house and looked at what I owed at 6% interest rate I knew I was underwater for 30 years with a short snorkel line. What bothers me is the headline reads "48% of Americans will be underwater on Mortgages" then as you read the column acutually only 24% may be in that position. All in all I don't put much faith into these talking heads who are usually wrong on their predictions, I put as much faith in them as I do the local sports writer telling me my favorite team will win this weekend by 2 touchdowns. I truly believe we are heading out of this recession by the start of next year from what I am seeing, but that is on a local level in Columbia S.C. listening to these so called experts who group the nation into 3-5 states it is going to be years which I don't believe. Time will tell we are a strong nation and we will prevail time is really the only question.

Just finished updating my website
http://ping.fm/pn34M

www.clickoncraig.com

Possible signs Recession may be coming to end in Columbia S.C.

Published: July 29, 2009

COLUMBIA — After years of bad news, it looks like the recession may be over in South Carolina and nationally.

“We do believe the recession actually has bottomed-out now,” said Dr. Doug Woodward, an economist at the Darla Moore School of Business at the University of South Carolina.

“We see a lot of indications that the economy is not expanding vigorously, but it’s not deteriorating, either,” he said. “Maybe that’s not the best news to hear, but it is in the context of what we’ve been through.”

Woodward said the school keeps track of the economy through a set of indicators, which are combined into a composite index of leading indicators that anticipate where the economy will be in six to eight months. Those indicators include things like home sales, construction permits, unemployment, hours worked and national indicators, like the stock market.

Nationally, the stock market is back above 9,000 and has been rising since March. Home prices went up in May for the first time in three years, based on a 20-city index. Nationally, home sales also went up in June for the third straight month.

In South Carolina, home sales were up 16.5 percent in May from April.

But it’s not a vigorous recovery and there are mixed signals. While home sales were up from April to May, when you compare May 2009 with May 2008, sales were down 21.4 percent.

S.C. Comptroller General Richard Eckstrom said he hopes the recession is over, but he’s not convinced yet that it is. Companies across the state are still cutting back.

DuPont Teijin Films announced Tuesday it will cease polyester film manufacturing operations in Florence by September 2010. All 213 employees will lose their jobs at some point in the shutdown process, which will occur in phases.

Mohawk Industries just announced that its cutting 45 positions from its commercial carpet plant in Landrum.

“Sales taxes, usually, pretty much reflect what’s going on out in the economy and our sales tax collections are terrible,” Eckstrom said. “We saw sales tax collections dip 6, 7 percent last month. It’s not as bad as they had been, but it’s still very bad.”

Eckstrom said income taxes and corporate taxes also are down, but they typically recover later in the process.

Woodward also said those are “lagging indicators,” so it’s no surprise they would still be down if the recovery is just beginning.

And, unfortunately for the thousands of South Carolinians who are out of work or facing layoffs, the unemployment rate is also one of the last things to improve during any recovery.

“Businesses aren’t going to be hiring and bringing on new employees until they see a sure sign of recovery,” Woodward said. “So their business might be expanding, but they’re not going to be hiring. They might add more hours to the existing labor force, so that’s one thing we do look at as an anticipation of where the economy’s headed — hours worked. But actual new jobs being created and the lower unemployment rate, that’s just the last thing to pick up.

“We just think — we hope — the worst is over.”